Mainland China lockdown is over; new domestic reported cases of COVID-19 are practically small. Does Beijing Outbreak threaten China recovery? New imported outbreak in Beijing in June is now under control without lockdown, thanks to swift action by authority testing 2.3 million people in one week. Businesses remain cautious, but almost all offices, factories, schools, and retail outlets have reopened nationwide. So have most tourist attractions. Our recent China consumer-sentiment survey shows that confidence is coming back: more people feel safe returning to work than did just two weeks ago
At present, travel is entirely domestic; international borders remain closed. China has imposed a 14-day quarantine (in homes or government facilities) for every person coming from overseas. International flights are capped at one a week per airline and country: a more than 90 percent drop in seat capacity from pre-crisis levels. Hotel occupancy reaching 32% in April 1 and 40% in May according to STR data.
What's coming Next ?
According to consumer-sentiment survey by Mckinsey and observations of the market have revealed four trends along the recovery path.
1. Peak recovery after September
2. Outdoor, customized and family
3. Self guided tours become dominant
4. Aggressive promotion and Social Media
What can the world learn from this?
Although the recovery will differ country by country, we do see common themes. People still want to travel. Many are calling this “revenge travel". The international survey results resemble what we see in China. Domestic travel will return first. International travel, especially if it involves flying, will take much more time to recover. The travel sectors of countries that lack large domestic markets will recover more slowly and may open up first to travelers from nearby countries.
Who will travel first and where?
We believe that travel will return in other countries much as it has in China. The FIT and small group will go first. Travel will start with nearby destinations. Outdoor and nature-related destinations will be more popular than congested cities. MICE, Luxury and mass market will recover at different stages.
Source: Mckinsey, Welcome China, Ministry of Culture & Tourism, The People's Republic of China